Modeling NFL quarterback success with college data
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Sports analysts often say that the quarterback is the most important and impactful position in American professional sports. Because of this popular opinion, each season a disproportionately large number of college quarterbacks are drafted into the National Football League (NFL), making at a minimum $435,000, but most making substantially more. However, of the 21 quarterbacks drafted in the first 2 rounds in the past 5 NFL drafts, only 12 threw 100 or more passes in the 2015 NFL season, suggesting that a large number of these players were drafted earlier than their talent warranted. Although finding a great quarterback can arguably help a team more than any other position, other positions can be safer bets in the draft and drafting a quarterback too early and overpaying said quarterback can set an NFL franchise back for years. In this thesis we will present a series of models, each modeling a different element of information relevant to quarterback success in the NFL in an attempt to explain what NFL teams are currently looking for in quarterback prospects and what may be a better way of judging a quarterback prospect.