A credit migration approach in the evaluation of the relative financial strength and endurance of beginning small business of young farm operators under recessionary conditions
Rusiana, Hofner Doydora
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This paper examines the relative financial strength and endurance of several paired classes of farmers according to business maturity (beginning versus mature farm businesses), farm operators’ age and experience (young versus older, more experienced farm operators), and farm size (small versus large farm businesses) by utilizing transition probability approach and random-effects ordered logistic regression techniques. Results show that the financial stress resulting from the late 2000s recession did not significantly influence the financial vitality of farms in general, regardless of the farm types. The financial strength of small farms, young farm operators, and beginning farms during the recessionary period remained at favorable levels, although their performances were lower to their counterparts. In addition, increasing farm size will lead to a higher probability of class upgrades. Being a young farm operator meanwhile decreases this probability. Positive changes in money supply and farm real estate values were found to increase the likelihood of credit upgrades. Results also show trend reversal of credit risk movement, where upgrades (downgrades) are more likely to be followed by downgrades (upgrades).