Discerning the danger of potential spoilers
Jeppson, Michael Terry
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This paper examines the role of external state spoilers, or patron spoilers, in the disruption of neighboring civil conflicts. It argues that based on the characteristics of geographic proximity, rivalry, ethnic ties, and perceived economic gains, an external state is more likely to be a potential patron spoiler than a state that does not possess these characteristics. The aim of this paper is to add to the existing spoiler literature in providing a method to identify a group of external spoilers ex-ante. The failure of the Abidjan Peace Agreement in the Sierra Leone civil conflict can be explained by neighboring Liberia displaying the characteristics of a patron spoiler.