Risk-averse patterns of democratization in Mexico

Abstract

This study seeks to evaluate whether varying individual levels of risk-aversion are still as efficient of a predictor of voting behavior in Mexico as previous research has demonstrated. While previous work has argued that risk-averse voters in Mexico tend to vote for the PRI and risk-acceptant voters for opposition parties, this study hypothesizes that notions of the alignment of party identification and perceived risk have become localized to subnational levels of government in Mexico. Mixed support is found for this hypothesis through a multi-stage statistical analysis of responses to the 2010 round of the Latinobarometer and a new state-level measure of dominant party politics. The study concludes with suggestions on how to potentially improve future research on the topics of democratization and voting behavior.