Comparison of a point estimate and probabilistic risk assessment of a military golf course slated for base closure
Hodoh, Ofia B.
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The current guidelines for human health risk assessments uses conservative point estimates to characterize the hazards associated with exposure to chemicals in the environment. The probabilistic methods currently proposed by the USEPA focus on Monte Carlo analysis which can be applied to the same exposure scenarios presented in the point estimate approach. The major objective of this study was to compare the results of the point estimate and probabilistic methods (one-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis considering uncertainty in the concentration term), when applied to various exposure scenarios and receptors. The site was a golf course on a Naval Air Station slated for closure. Cancer risks and noncancer health hazards from human exposure to a golf course potentially contaminated with pesticides, metals and organic compounds were evaluated. The values obtained in the point estimate appear overly conservative and are approximately 1 to 30- fold greater than the probabilistic method results.