The frontloading of presidential primaries and caucuses from the states' perspective

Abstract

In the years since the McGovern-Fraser reforms fundamentally reshaped the presidential nomination process, a trend toward the early scheduling of presidential primaries and caucuses emerged. This frontloading phenomenon has led to nominations being decided earlier and earlier as states moved to have an influence over the process. While the motivation for this movement has been established in the extant literature, nothing has attempted to explain why some states are better able to shift the dates on which their delegate selection event. This research will seek to explain not only what separates states in this regard but also show, using a series of time series cross-sectional logistic regression models, that political and structural factors have a larger impact on obstructing some states from moving their primaries and caucuses than states simply being motivated to move.