The reliability of threat assessment judgments in experts, human resource professionals, and novices

Abstract

Policy capturing of threat assessment judgments was performed on “Experts” (including law enforcement and military professionals), Human Resources (HR) professionals, and a student sample. Policies were analyzed idiographically using the Brunswikian Lens Model, followed by policy aggregation for nomothetic comparisons of factors such as cognitive consistency in execution of judgment policies and utilization of particular cues. Hypotheses included that ability to control, execute, and describe policies would be greatest in Experts, and that concealment and race cues would be used more by experts. It was also hypothesized that experts would differ least from each other in cue utilization. Mixed results were found. Surprisingly, many hypotheses regarding performance were met by the Human Resource professional Group, but not the Expert group. Discussion of possible reasons and suggestions for future research follow.